Mets Drive For 90 Wins | Astromets Mind

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Mets Drive For 90 Wins

Reviewing the progress towards the 90-win challenge GM Sandy Alderson gave the Mets in Spring Training about every 20 games.

Current Record – 28-35

Since last time – 8-11

May 21-22 – Won 1 and lost 1 against the Dodgers. (Series in Review)
May 23-25 – Lost 2/3 against the Diamondbacks. (Series in Review)
May 26-28 – Won 2/3 against the Pirates. (Series in Review)
May 29-June 2 – Won 4/5 against the Phillies. (Series in Review)
June 3-5 – Swept by Cubs. (Series in Review)
June 6-8 – Swept by Giants. (Series in Review)

Splits for the season

Home: 13-17                   Away: 15-18
Runs scored: 252            Runs Allowed: 257
Pythagorean W-L (BB-Ref): 31-32
ESPN Playoff odds: 12.2%


4th in NL East, 5.5 games back of Atlanta and Washington, 5 games back of Miami, 2 games ahead of Philadelphia.
5 games out of a Wild Card spot.


Statistics – Season PA, AVG/OBP/SLG, K%/BB%, BABIP, wRC+
                        (Stats May 21-June 8)

Travis ∂’Arnaud – 145 PA, .180/.271/.273, 17.2 K%/11.0 BB%, .200 BABIP, 50 wRC+
                              (31, .115/.258/.115, 12.9 K%/16.1 BB, .136 BABIP, -29 wRC+)

            I took a closer look at his major league numbers with the help of here. I’ll be keeping a close eye on his progress in the minors.

Lucas Duda – 205 PA, .242/.341/.433, 22.0 K%/11.7 BB%, .280 BABIP, 119 wRC+
                        (67 PA, .222/.373/.481, 16.4 K%/17.9 BB%, .225 BABIP, 138 wRC+)

            Duda is having a very strong season that is very similar to his career line of .246/.342/.425 (116 wRC+). Combined with his scratch defense, Duda is on pace to provide the Mets with about 2 fWAR this season, which would easily be a career best. He’s not one of the top 1B, but he has not been one of the Mets problems this season. The average 1B has a 113 wRC+ in 2014, so he’s even been above average.

Daniel Murphy – 284 PA, .305/.359/.421, 11.3 K%/8.1 BB%, .333 BABIP, 121 wRC+
                              (89 PA, .296/.360/.383, 9.0 K%/9.0 BB%, .319 BABIP, 112 wRC+)

            Daniel Murphy is having an excellent season for the Mets, easily the best and most consistent hitter so far. The increase in BB% is encouraging.

Ruben Tejada – 179 PA, .227/.345/.300, 18.4 K%/14.5 BB%, .278 BABIP, 85 wRC+
                            (50 PA, .341/.460/.512, 14.0 K%/16.0 BB%, .375 BABIP, 182 wRC+)

            Had a 45 wRC+ before the Mets double-header on May 25 and has been Ruben Tulowitzki since. I’m having a hard time buying into this version of Ruben, though I’d love for it to be real. On the season, the average SS has a 92 wRC+ so far, so Tejada doesn’t look too terrible if you look at his overall stats, but that’s two weeks of great hitting against eight weeks of terrible hitting.

David Wright – 287 PA, .279/.334/.378, 22.0 K%/7.3 BB%, .350 BABIP, 100 wRC+
                           (86 PA, .263/.349/.395, 19.8 K%/11.6 BB%, .316 BABIP, 109 wRC+)

            Despite his decent numbers relative to the league, his performance hasn’t lived up to David Wright’s standards, and his ‘struggles’ have been a big blow to the Mets offense.

Curtis Granderson – 257 PA, .221/.331/.382, 26.1 K%/13.2 BB%, .276 BABIP, 106 wRC+
                                    (84 PA, .258/.393/.424, 25.0 K%/17.9 BB%, .333 BABIP, 135 wRC+)

            Has really picked it up after his slow start in April and is the only healthy Mets OF to have a strong hold on his position.

Juan Lagares – 172 PA, .288/.331/.423, 22.1 K%/5.2 BB%, .364 BABIP, 111 wRC+
                           (56 PA, .260/.302/.340, 21.4 K%/5.4 BB%, .342 BABIP, 82 wRC+)

            I cannot wait for Lagares to get back and healthy. It’s too bad he’s had these injury set backs this season. #Snakebitten

Chris Young – 167 wRC+, .205/.295/.336, 18.6 K%/9.0 BB%, .232 BABIP, 81 wRC+
                          (57 PA, .191/.316/.255, 14.0 K%/15.8 BB%, .205 BABIP, 67 wRC+)

            There has been a lot of talk from Mets fans hoping CY won’t be around much longer. I cannot argue with his poor performance so far, but the Mets don’t have that many other options right now. His status on the roster might be in jeopardy when EY or Lagares returns. Personally, I think the return of Lagares would make CY expendable, but not before that. Andrew Brown can replace his righty bat off the bench, but cannot cover CF for the Mets.

Bobby Abreu – 72 PA, .274/.361/.435, 9.7 K%/12.5 BB%, .291 BABIP, 127 wRC+
                          (40 PA, .286/.375/.429, 7.5 K%/12.5 BB%, .313 BABIP, 131 wRC+)

            Has been a strong pick up and call up. Even if he doesn’t get too much playing time in the OF, his bat is very useful for the Mets off the bench.

Wilmer Flores – 63 PA, .250/.286/.333, 23.8 K%/4.8 BB%, .318 BABIP, 76 wRC+
                           (42 PA, .262/.262/.381, 21.4 K%/0.0 BB%, .313 BABIP, 78 wRC+)

            Dear Terry and Sandy, if you don’t want to play Wilmer everyday (or most days), then please send him back to AAA for more game experience at SS and reps at the plate. Pick a plan at SS and commit to it Terry, don’t just try to get the ‘hot bat’ in the lineup.

Eric Campbell – 50 PA, .302/.360/.442, 24.0 K%/8.0 BB%, .375 BABIP, 125 wRC+
                            (36 PA, .226/.306/.355, 30.6 K%/8.3 BB%, .300 BABIP, 89 wRC+)

            Not getting many PA’s but that was expected.

Matt ∂en Dekker – 31 PA, .179/.258/.214, 29.0 K%/9.7 BB%, .263 BABIP, 39 wRC+
            Has been on top of his game defensively, but struggling offensively. M∂D is a very streaky hitter, so even if he gets hot I will be trying to temper my expectations.

Anthony Recker – 94 PA, .207/.250/.333, 35.1 K%/4.3 BB%, .308 BABIP, 64 wRC+
                               (36 PA, .206/.250/.265, 33.3 K%/2.8 BB%, .318 BABIP, 46 wRC+)

            I’m curious to see how the Mets handle the catching split between Recker and Teagarden moving forward. The speculation is that Teagarden was called up because he has an out day in his contract coming up. Otherwise, despite his hot April, Centeno is probably the better choice. It would give the Mets a L/R platoon at catcher, and a different hitter profile – Teagarden and Recker have very similar offensive profiles.

Totals since last time: (.243/.334/.360), 163-670, 75 R, 68 RBI, 32 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 87 BB, 6 HBP, 8 SH, 4 SF, 14-22 SB, 155 SO, 20 GIDP



(Stats are since last check in)


Bartolo Colon – 3 GS, 1.35 ERA, 20 IP, 19 H, 6 BB, 18 SO
            Mets 2-1 in his starts.

            Colon has been nasty outside of a couple of starts this season, looking like a good pickup by Sandy.

Zack Wheeler – 4 GS, 2.70 ERA, 23.1 IP, 18 H, 5 BB, 29 SO, HR
            Mets 1-3 in his starts.

            Has bounced back since his rough back-to-back starts against the Yankees and Nationals.

Jon Niese – 4 GS, 2.93 ERA, 27.2 IP, 21 H, 9 BB, 16 SO, 2 HR
            Mets 3-1 in his starts.

            Mets ace so far.

Jacob ∂eGrom – 4 GS, 3.75 ERA, 24 IP, 17 H, 13 BB, 22 SO, 5 HR
            Mets 2-2 in his starts.

            Aside from the homeruns, ∂eGrom has been much better than expected. Funny to think that he was barely considered as a starter possibility for the Mets this past off-season, and that more people expected him to be used out of the pen eventually.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – 2 GS, 3 as reliever, 4.61 ERA, 13.2 IP, 10 H, 8 BB, 11 SO
            Mets 1-1 in his starts.

            It’s yet to be determined what his future role on this club is, but Mets fans should be very happy with what he’s done so far, and his presence on the team has helped more often than not.


Carlos Torres – 10 G, Save, Hold, 2.13 ERA, 12.2 IP, 11 H, 4 BB, 13 SO, HR
            Consistent Carlos is consistent.

Jeurys Familia – 10 G, Save, Blown Save, 4 Holds, 1.64 ERA, 11 IP, 8 H, 3 BB, 11 SO

            Quite a turnaround from the pitcher many fans were calling to demote back in April.

Jenrry Mejia – 10 G, 0-3, 5 Saves, Blown Save, 4.82 ERA, 9.1 IP, 10 H, 6 BB, 9 SO, HR

            Has been a little inconsistent out of the pen, but he has some of the best stuff on the Mets.

Vic Black – 7 G, 1-1, Hold, 1.13 ERA, 8 IP, 6 H, 5 BB, 13 SO, HR

            In the competition for best overall stuff on the Mets and has been extremely effective since his recall.

Scott Rice – 10 G, 0-1, 3 Holds, 7.36 ERA, 3.2 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 5 SO, HR

            As of now, Rice is my pick for demotion once Gonzalez Germen is ready to come off the DL. It’s not just his lack of effectiveness either, it's that Terry can only use him for 1-3 batters at a time.

Josh Edgin – 9 G, 1-0, Blown Save, 2 Holds, 1.80 ERA, 5 IP, H, 6 SO, HR

            Looks ready to take over the Scott Rice LOOGY role.

Dana Eveland – 3 G, 0-1, Hold, 3.00 ERA, 3 IP, 3 H, BB, 4 SO

            Was having a very strong season as a starter for Las Vegas before his call-up and could provide the Mets with a lefty-long man, spot-starter or situational pitcher.

Totals since last time:

Bullpen (includes Dice-K, Buddy Carlyle and Jose Valverde): 3.05 ERA, 62 IP, 23 R (21 ER), 55 H, 29 BB, 67 SO, 5 HR
Starters (includes Rafael Montero’s two starts): 115 IP, 11 R (10 ER), 91 H, 44 BB, 103 SO, 10 HR

Season Ranks

Offense: 252 (21), 89 wRC+ (24), 6.1 fWAR (21), 49 SB (4), 45 HR (27)

Pitching: 3.70 ERA (12), 20.7 K% (14), 9.2 BB% (27), 60 (t-19), 2.86 SIERA (22)

Looking at the next 25

June 10-12 - vs. Brewers
June 13-15 - vs. Padres
June 16-18 - @Cardinals
June 19-22 - @Marlins
June 24-25 - vs. Athletics
June 26-29 - @Pirates
June 30-July 2 - @Braves
July 4-6 - vs. Rangers

What the Mets will need to do to get back on track for 90

            To reach 90 wins, the Mets need to finish 62-37, which is a .626 winning percentage, or a 101.5 win pace. While that is technically still a reachable goal, it seems like a very unrealistic one at this point. They had a chance to beef up on wins during the past 20 games, but did not. Mets have been making a number of moves to upgrade the roster since the season began, but have been held back offensively by some sub-par performances. They really need to step it up offensively the next few weeks and make up some ground in the standings if they want to see the postseason this year. The Mets aren't going to make the playoffs just because they play well over the next few weeks, but they might knock themselves out of playoff contention if they don't.

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