Reviewing the top 62 Prospects at the Half: 40-49 | Astromets Mind

Friday, July 18, 2014

Reviewing the top 62 Prospects at the Half: 40-49

Before the second half starts, let’s review how the consensus top 62 Mets prospects have been doing so far this season. Stats listed are combined minor league stats or major league stats if a player has graduated.

40.             Marcos Molina (19), stock way up

0.94 ERA, 5 GS, 28.2 IP, 13 H, 4 R (3 ER), 7 BB, 31 SO, 2 HBP, 110 BF
They laughed when Rob Parks and Baseball Prospectus had Marcos Molina in their top 10, well who’s laughing now? (OK, I doubt anyone laughed, but it was a big surprise for a top-10 prospect ranking). His mechanics have definitely been raising some red flags early – you can kind of see the unusual arm action in some of the gifs here – but the results with Brooklyn have been very impressive.

41.             Hansel Robles (23), stock slipping

4.97 ERA, 17 GS, 87 IP, 93 H, 50 R (48), 34 BB, 76 SO, 5 HBP, 10 HR, 280 BF
Hansel’s season has been the definition of inconsistency – he’s had as many starts with 0 ER allowed as he has with 5+ ER allowed (5 starts apiece). He’s had a game with seven walks allowed and a game with zero strikeouts recorded. I think a move to the bullpen should help, and that’s likely going to happen as soon as current lower level starters push him out of the BMets rotation. UPDATE: Word is that he has been moved to the BMets bullpen.

42.             Travis Taijeron (25), stock holding/slight uptick

268 PA, .251/.362/.502, 42 R, 24 2B, 11 HR, 46 RBI, 35 BB, 71 SO, CS
Outside of a few rough weeks from mid-April to mid-May, Taijeron has been hitting the ball really well for Binghamton this season. The power and patience are nice, but unless he cuts those strikeouts down, it’s hard to believe he’ll hit enough in the majors. All things considered, he is statistically similar to an Andrew Brown of the 51s. Given his recent power surge (7 2B, 8 HR, 1.168 OPS over his last 102 PA), he may be forcing his way into the Vegas OF rotation, but things are already crowded up there.

43.             Logan Verrett (24), stock holding

4.71 ERA, 105 IP, 149 H, 70 R (55 ER), 21 BB, 74 SO, 4 HBP, 8 HR, 477 BF
This seems like a good place for the future spot starter/long reliever. Verrett has good control of his arsenal and has managed to limit homeruns in the tough PCL, but is otherwise underwhelming – three average-at-best pitches. When he’s on, he lives at the bottom of the zone and gets a lot of groundballs. He’s been really good early on in his starts, but has consistently struggled in the 5th and 6th innings – 2.13 ERA after 2 IP, 2.74 ERA after 4 IP, 3.50 ERA after 5 IP, 4.56 ERA after 6 IP. Even when things are going fine for Verrett, he relies on his defense too much (not a good thing with this 51s roster) and gives up a lot of hard contact. I think he could be a useful reliever, I just worry about how his stuff translates to the majors, and it’s not a typical reliever’s arsenal.

44.             Gonzalez Germen (26), graduated last year

4.78 ERA, 26.1 IP, 26 H, 14 R, 11 BB, 26 SO, 6 HR, 113 BF with the Mets
Germen spent more than 45 days with the Mets before August 31 of last year, so he officially lost his rookie eligibility and should not be on the list. Nevertheless, Germen was one of the Mets best relievers before his injury in early May – 10/13 scoreless appearances and 7/13 appearances last more than an inning – but was very inconsistent upon his return. I thought it was odd that the Mets went from saying he’d get more rehab relief appearances with Bingo, to calling him up from St. Lucie. He’s looked good in his two appearances with the 51s since being demoted.

45.             Ivan Wilson (19), stock holding

85 PA, .187/.271/.373, 10 R, 3 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 7 BB, 41 SO (48.2%!), 2 SB
Not really much to take away from 85 plate appearances with Kingsport, although Ivan Wilson has taken the meaning of high-K% to a new level. When he has made contact, it has been hard contact – he has 7 XBH in the 37 PA that haven’t ended with a strikeout or walk – so there’s that. He’s a very athletic 19-year old playing CF in rookie ball – the results don’t matter much yet, he just needs to play (that K% is downright scary though).

46.             Matt Reynolds (23), stock way up

338, .350/.418/.431, 58 R, 13 2B, 4 3B, HR, 31 RBI, 36 BB, 62 SO, 10/14 SB
Reynolds has done two things to raise his prospect stock this year: he’s hit like crazy and he’s shown that he can handle 2B/SS. To the first point, his BABIP is .430+ across AA and AAA, but he’s been line drive crazy, and good hitters tend to have high BABIPs in the minors. It’s not all great though, as he only had 9 XBH in 242 PA with Binghamton for a .066 ISO. It took him less than 60 PA to match that XBH total with Las Vegas, although he has none in 37 PA since number nine. It’s only been 96 PA, but Reynolds K% and BB% have gone in the wrong direction with Las Vegas, though they aren't unreasonable. Defensively, Reynolds range is below average up the middle, and he’s still relatively inexperienced at both positions – he was a 3B in College, and only has 20 pro games at 2B – but he’s as good as some of the guys the Mets have used in the middle infield the past few seasons. With his great line drive approach and acceptable defense at 2B, I could see him starting in the major leagues. Justin Turner 2.0 is the more likely outcome, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

47.             Aderlin Rodriguez (22), stock slipped

320 PA, .246/.288/.375, 31 R, 17 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 15 BB, 63 SO
I’m a little surprised Aderlin wasn’t further down on this list, but I guess his power potential sticks out in peoples minds. He’s been with St. Lucie since 2012 – nearly 750 PA – and seems to be getting slightly worse the longer he stays. He teased everyone with what appeared to be a breakout June this year (.319/.340/.484 in 94 PA), but July has been his worst month of the year. He appears to have a lefty split advantage (.730 OPS vs. LHP, .634 OPS vs. RHP), but he only has one homerun in 86 PA against lefties this year, which is pretty terrible considering power is his calling card. Lastly, he’s always been a low average hitter despite average K-rates in the minors, and that likely has a lot to do with below average LD-rates in the minors. So, he’s a no-hit, no-walk, no-in-game-power hitter who’s mostly playing 1B at this point (last game at 3B was June 12) – he better start hitting soon.

48.             Matt Koch (23), stock slipping

4.10 ERA, 14 GS, 79 IP, 85 H, 40 R (36 ER), 18 BB, 33 SO, 8 HBP, 6 HR, 335 BF
I don’t like giving Koch a negative rating without having seen him this year, but a 9.9 K% in the FSL is not promising. His overall numbers this season are boosted by a 1.47 ERA (.648 OPS) over 30.2 IP in May, when he had an 8.9 K%. His control is great and he hasn’t allowed a high HR-rate, but how far can he get relying on his defense so much?

49.             Akeel Morris (21), stock up

0.88 ERA, 27 G, 41 IP, 25 H, 4 R, 17 BB, 64 SO, HR, HBP, 157 BF
I’m not really sure why Akeel Morris is still relieving in Savannah, but he’s been blowing the league away with his mid-90’s heat. I’ve seen him a few times on, and he’s mixed in a decent breaking ball, but the fastball has been more than enough for SAL hitters since April. Akeel has handled lefties no problem (.578 OPS, 31.9 K%), but has been downright filthy against righties (.218 OPS, 47.7 K%). I’m hoping he gets more of a challenge in the 2nd half. Check out some recent video here. An interesting development with Akeel has been how the Gnats have used him out of the bullpen – he threw more than one inning in 12 of his first 14 appearances (2+ IP in 8/14), but has only done that twice in the last 13 appearances (2+ IP in 0/13).

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