Reviewing the Top 62 Prospects at the Half: 50-62 | Astromets Mind

Friday, July 18, 2014

Reviewing the Top 62 Prospects at the Half: 50-62

Before the second half starts, let’s review how the consensus top 62 Mets prospects have been doing so far this season. Stats listed are combined minor league stats or major league stats if a player has graduated.

50.             L.J. Mazzilli (23), stock rising

379 PA, .291/.356/.439, 50 R, 17 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 58 RBI, 35 BB, 61 SO, 12/14 SB
With his polished approach, Mazzilli was expected to hit at the A-ball level this year, but I don’t think people predicted this power surge – he’s had a ~.200 ISO in 229 PA since May 13 for Savannah/St. Lucie, as opposed to a ~.070 ISO in 152 PA prior. With a number of middle infield options at Savannah and St. Lucie, lil’ Maz has mostly played 2B this year, though he did get 14 games at SS with Savannah. He’s never going to be a full-time SS, but his ability to handle it can’t hurt. The only negative since his promotion to St. Lucie has been a below average 6.3 BB%.

51.            Erik Goeddel (25), stock holding/slight downtick

5.52 ERA, 36 G, 45.2 IP, 56 H, 31 R (28 ER), 27 BB, 44 SO, 4 HR, HBP, 217 BF
It’s been a disappointing season for Goeddel in his transition to the bullpen, as he’s been very inconsistent. It’s not all bad, as he’s flashed a mid-90’s fastball and a nice curveball, but neither has seemed reliable from game-to-game. With his stuff, I’m still interested in him as a future relief option for the Mets, but he’s lower on their depth chart right now. He’s had more success against lefties (.716 OPS) than righties (.983 OPS) so far with Vegas, but there’s also a .100 point BABIP advantage for lefties.

52.              Allan Dykstra (27), stock holding/slight uptick

318 PA, .282/.428/.516, 47 R, 18 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, 59 RBI, 61 BB, 64 SO
Ignoring the fact that he’s in his first year of AAA at 27, there are two main flaws in Dykstra’s game that prevent a ‘stock up/rising’ grade: despite winning the AAA HR derby, Allan is not a homerun hitter (Wilmer Flores has as many PCL HR’s in 113 less PA), which is important because he is a poor defensive 1B – I was recently reading about hip issues (avascular necrosis) Dykstra suffers from, which limits his mobility at 1B. I’ve heard people worry about his bat speed, but it’s apparently just fine (I realize the HR derby is not the best place to judge such things). I think Dykstra should get a chance to see if his offense translates to the major league level, though it might have to happen as a DH with an AL club, and he’s no guarantee to hit enough.

53.             Miller Diaz (22), stock up

2.40 ERA, 9 G (8 GS), 48.2 IP, 35 H, 15 R (13 ER), 21 BB, 59 SO, HR, 6 HBP, 204 BF
People were certainly taking notice of his season before he went down with an apparent injury after his June 5 start – he hasn’t pitched since. Aside from a high BB%, which seems strange from someone who has a reputation for throwing mostly fastballs, he did everything you want – few hits allowed, only the 1 HR (10 XBH total), and lots of strikeouts (28.9 K%).

54.             Darrell Ceciliani (24), stock holding

285, .279/.320/.416, 40 R, 12 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 15 BB, 56 SO, 9/13 SB
I’ve never been too impressed with Ceciliani, but as a lefty who can handle CF, he still has upside as a 4th OF option/platoon starter for the Mets or some other major league team. Unfortunately, this is looking like it will be a second straight full season at AA, and his results haven’t improved to date. On the positive side, he has hit .315/.358/.514 in 120 PA since June 1, and has 5 of his 6 homeruns in that time, so he may ‘breaking out’. As far as the platoon role is concerned, it may not be warranted, as he has hit LHP’s better than RHP’s thus far in 2014, and the L/R splits have been close throughout his minor league career – 2013 is the exception, as he struggled against lefties.

55.             Tomas Nido (20), stock holding, for now

88 PA, .250/.284/.286, 9 R, 2B, 3B, 9 RBI, 4 BB, 22 SO, SB
I haven’t seen much of Nido, but it’s a crowded catching rotation in Brooklyn – Adrian Abreu and Tyler Moore have been getting regular reps at the position too – so he’s been getting into the lineup as a DH too. Nido is still just a 20-year old catcher in Brooklyn, and catchers have a reputation as late bloomers, so he has time to turn things around, but his results have been underwhelming thus far.

56.            Daniel Muno (25), stock rising

297 PA, .267/.381/.421, 54 R, 9 2B, 3B, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 41 BB, 50 SO, 6/11 SB
His offensive stats may be a little PCL inflated, and it’s always hard to tell how those numbers will translate, but Muno is exactly the type of backup middle infielder the Mets roster is missing right now. He’s a switch-hitter who plays 2B/SS/3B and can probably handle 1B. He has better than average K% and BB% rates throughout his pro career with decent middle infield power. He’s one of the 51s fastest players too, though his stolen base numbers don’t reflect that yet. Also, he’s been on fire since May 28 – 15.6 K%: 14.8 BB% with a .309/.421/.545 line over 135 PA for a 154 wRC+. The next Justin Turner?

57.              Patrick Biondi (23), stock slipping

357 PA, .244/.322/.298, 41 R, 8 2B, 3 3B, HR, 13 RBI, 34 BB, 71 SO, 19/31 SB
Biondi is a small (5’ 9” and 165 pounds per BB-Ref), speedy OF who can play CF with a decent walk rate. He has very little power potential and little upside – a fifth outfielder’s role would be a good outcome. His K% is about league average, but that’s not really good for a 23-year old with no power in A-ball.

58.              Champ Stuart (21), stock up

164 PA, .287/.399/.360, 28 R, 2 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 26 BB, 43 SO, 12/15 SB
I was very excited when I saw that Champ was getting a chance at Savannah before the Brooklyn season began, and he’s stuck around ever since. That strikeout rate is still too high, but he’s done everything else as advertised (high BB%, lots of SB, good CF defense). He’s a high upside/low floor player, but one of the most exciting players in the lower minors of the Mets system. His speed is a true 80 rating, and he recently score from 2B on a sac fly to deep CF.

59.              Jhoan Urena (19), stock up

125 PA, .306/.384/.459, 13 R, 8 2B, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 14 BB, 27 SO, 3/7 SB
I have been hearing positive things about Jhoan (pronounced Johan) from NYPenn league announcers since the first weekend of the season. He’s a small, switch-hitting 3B with a little more pop than would be expected for his size – BB-Ref has him at 6’ 1” and 200 pounds, but that seems generous. His defense at 3B seems fine for a 19-year old in Brooklyn – I’ve seen good lateral range and enough arm for 3B, but he’s botched a couple of grounders for errors.

60.              Phillip Evans (21), stock up

272 PA, .267/.324/.356, 23 R, 10 2B, 4 HR, 26 RBI, 21 BB, 30 SO, 0/1 SB
Given the rate stats and that I haven't seen him this year, it may seem kind to say his stock is up, but remember that he is a 21-year old SS/2B hitting at a league average rate in his first taste of A+ ball (and is currently ranked 60th on this list). BB-Ref says that he is ~1.5 years younger than the average player in the FSL. More importantly, this is as good as he’s hit in the minors, and it’s a huge improvement over his 2013 stats. I think a big 2nd half is coming – 10.2 K%: 11.9 BB% and 122 wRC+ over the 60 PA since returning from whatever knocked him out.

61.             Bret Mitchell (25), stock slipping

3.86 ERA, 14 G, 21 IP, 14 H, 9 R, 12 BB, 23 SO, HBP, 87 BF
On the plus side, he’s had a good K-rate and hasn’t allowed many hits (and 5 R on 5 H in one appearance inflates the hit numbers). On the negative side, he’s 25, he missed almost two months, and he’s back pitching for Savannah after starting the year with St. Lucie – that’s probably temporary.

62.            Jared King (22), stock rising

169 PA, .254/.373/.399, 18 R, 4 2B, 5 3B, 2 HR, 25 RBI, 26 BB, 18 SO, 5/7 SBKing got off to a very hot start with Savannah in April, got engaged on the baseball field before a game, then fractured his right fibula and missed two months. After recovering, King made a quick rehab stop in the GCL before an unexpected promotion to the St. Lucie Mets. I think the promotion reflects the front office’s belief in King’s approach (11 XBH, 26 BB, 18 SO), as well as the relative needs of the Savannah/St. Lucie OF’s.

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