2015 Splits Review: Vicente Lupo | Astromets Mind

Friday, March 25, 2016

2015 Splits Review: Vicente Lupo


The slugging outfielder had a big second half, but can he overcome the massive strikeout problems he showed in his full-season debut?

LF/1B/DH, RHB, 22


2015 with Savannah: 93 G, 335 PA, .213/.304/.381, 38 R, 61 H, 18 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 133 K: 32 BB (39.9 K%: 9.6 BB%), .351 BABIP, .168 ISO, 95 wRC+, 9.9 AB/XBH, 15.7% HR/FB, 41.4 GB%: 32.5 FB%: 21 LD%: 5.1 PU%, 5-9 on stolen bases (56%)



            One look at Vicente Lupo, or his stats, and it quickly becomes clear why he’s interesting: power. If you are looking at his stats, it’s also easy to see why he’s not more interesting or well known: strikeouts, so many strikeouts. There were only 3 instances when Lupo went multiple games without a strikeout in 2015, and he never lasted 3 games. Lupo is a classic three-true-outcome guy, but then again he better be if he’s striking out 40% of the time. He’s a big guy, with huge forearms, and predictably not much of a runner. That said, he’s not a butcher in LF or on the base paths, he’s just limited. Check out his splits and some cage work from May I captured during my trip to Rome – apologies for the shakiness, I had never taped pro cage action before.

Vicente Lupo's 2015 Splits vs. LHP (left) and vs. RHP (right)


Table 1 – Vicente Lupo’s 2015 Splits by Month
Month
PA
AB/XBH
HR/FB
BB%
K%
BABIP
ISO
wRC+
GB%
April
51
22.5
8.3
9.8
37.3
.321
.088
38
25.9
May
85
12
0
12.9
38.8
.325
.083
66
37.8
June
58
8.7
30
5.2
41.4
.407
.231
121
37.9
July
80
9.2
27.3
12.6
43.8
.286
.234
104
51.6
August
41
6
12.5
7.3
29.3
.435
.250
168
50
September
20
9.5
0
0
50
.556
.105
87
55.6

Table 2 – Vicente Lupo’s 2015 Platoon Splits
Split
PA
AB/XBH
HR/FB
BB%
K%
BABIP
ISO
wRC+
GB%
LHP
103
10.6
14.3
11.7
37.9
.333
.141
90
35.4
RHP
232
9.7
16.2
8.6
40.5
.352
.177
96
44

Table 3 – Vicente Lupo’s 2015 Splits by Batted Ball Type
Batted Ball Type
PA
BABIP
SAL BABIP
wOBA
SAL wOBA
FB
51
.233
.189
.587*
.341
GB
68
.284
.252
.291
.243
LD
33
.727
.734
.757
.788
*6th in the SAL, min. 40 fly balls hit

Table 4 – Vicente Lupo’s 2015 Splits by Batted Ball Direction
Batted Ball Direction
PA
%
AB/XBH
BABIP
SAL BABIP*
wOBA
SAL wOBA*
GB%
Center
41
25.8
3.9
.462
.326
.586ª
.347
27.5
Opposite
44
27.7
10.5
.227
.262
.252
.282
34.9
Pull
74
46.5
4.7
.373
.344
.538
.428
53.4
*RHB Only; ª2nd in the SAL, min. 40 balls hit up the middle




            It’s not a big leg kick, but Lupo loads everything on his back leg before exploding forward. He’s always shown a willingness to take the walk, but he has trouble identifying and hitting breaking stuff. When he does make contact, he’s capable of punishing the ball to all fields, although he showed pull-heavy tendencies last year. He was one of the very best in the SAL on fly balls and when hitting the ball up the middle last year, and he was top-30 when pulling the ball. He didn’t show any platoon splits, but that works against him in a sense, because at least a big platoon split work on the bench. On the other hand, if he can improve his approach so that he’s striking out less, it should benefit him against both sides, and that’s always preferred.
            Overall, Lupo tantalizes with his power, but it’s hard to believe in someone who strikes out 40% of the time for any significant stretch of time. He got off to a very slow start in 2015, but adjusted to the league by midseason, and his ISO from June 1st on (.224) would’ve led the SAL – he had 21 XBH and 23 BB+HBP over 200 PA during that span. Despite a 40% strikeout rate over those last 200 PA, Lupo’s production was ~20% better than SAL average, which hints at the type of damage he could do with merely a bad strikeout rate. He’s already been in the organization 5 seasons, but Lupo is only 22, so he has plenty of time to improve his K-rates. Still, it’s unlikely he makes huge gains with his K-rates, and I think he’ll have to start hitting a lot of homeruns to avoid fizzling out before AAA.


Astromets Mind Coverage

5/6Double
5/7Single
9/6Single
9/7Double



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